The Ghana Meteorological Agency says the El Niño Pacific event is among the strongest on record and still building, bringing bushfire, water and heat risks from November and making the 2027 rains uncertain in both directions

Published 31 Oct 2026, 08:03 GMT

3 min read

The Ghana Meteorological Agency’s El Niño advisory, published on 30 October 2026. — GMet says a very strong El Niño is likely to bring a hotter, drier dry season.

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a very strong and still-intensifying El Niño will likely bring a hotter, drier dry season to much of Ghana, with heat stress expected to peak between February and April 2027, especially in the north.

In an advisory published on Friday, 30 October, and revised after a scientific review by its Governing Board on 27 October, GMet said the tropical Pacific was experiencing “a very strong and still intensifying El Niño event”.

Citing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, it put the chance of the event reaching very strong intensity between November and January at about 96 per cent, and said El Niño was very likely to persist into early 2027.

Hotter, drier dry season likely from November, with heat stress peaking February to April 2027, especially in the north

The agency said the main risks from November to April were a hotter and drier dry season in many areas, bushfires, water stress and dust. It cautioned that localised heavy rain and flooding remained possible even where seasonal rainfall is expected to be below normal, four months after the June 29 floods, which NADMO says killed 34 people and displaced 91,046 across the country.

GMet’s updated outlook for October to December forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of Ghana. Above-normal rainfall is still expected in some inland parts of Greater Accra and the Central Region, south-western Volta and Eastern, parts of Bono and Savannah, and north-western Upper West, with warmer-than-average temperatures in most places.

Dry-season electricity depends on water already in Lake Volta; the El Niño risk to hydropower falls in 2028

On electricity, the agency said generation through this dry season depends mainly on water already stored in Lake Volta, which had good inflows this year after above-normal rain in Burkina Faso and the controlled spillage of the Bagré Dam from 28 August.

The El Niño-sensitive period for hydropower, it said, is the 2027 inflow season, which will determine generation in 2028.

The 2027 rainy seasons are uncertain “in both directions”. Late and weak rains are possible if El Niño fades slowly or the Gulf of Guinea stays cool, while above-normal rain in the north, flooding and spillage from the Volta dams become more likely if La Niña develops by mid-2027.

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The Ghana Meteorological Agency’s El Niño advisory, published on 30 October 2026.

GMet said the usual dry-season meningitis risk in the north could be compounded by heat and dryness, though it said this should not be described as an El Niño effect. The Health Ministry issued a meningitis alert in January during the last dry season.

GMet and the Ghana Health Service will issue heat advisories, with attention to older people, young children, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness and crowded urban households.

GMet wants a national El Niño task force reporting to Cabinet monthly

The agency is calling for a National El Niño and Dry-Season Preparedness Task Force, bringing together the ministries responsible for food and agriculture, health, energy, water resources, local government and finance with the Volta River Authority, and reporting to Cabinet monthly through the peak risk period.

It also recommends pre-positioning drought-tolerant seed and meningitis vaccines, replenishing NADMO’s relief stocks and running a national public awareness campaign.

Ghana’s past El Niño years include the very strong events of 1982/83 and 1997/98, both followed by power rationing, and 2015/16.

In the moderate event of 2023/24, Ghana’s cocoa output fell by an estimated 20 per cent.

GMet said it would issue updated forecasts for the 2027 rainy seasons early next year.

GMet raises alarm: Strong El Niño coming — hot dry season ahead, extreme heat from February to April

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